In the month of October 2018, India has doubled the import of petroleum from Iran in value terms to $1.42 billion. During the first 8 months of 2018, the value of Iran oil imports to India was double of the same period in the year 2017. Even, if we talk in volume terms, oil imports are up 38%.
After this confirmation, now the next question arises – whether the attempt of Trump to squeeze Iran is failing. The administration of Trump was forced to provide 8 Asian countries “waivers” in order to allow them Iranian oil imports by the US Treasury Department Office of Foreign Asset Control without risking sanctions. The United States of America places third-party sanctions on firms as well as government trading along with sanctioned countries like Iran. These third-party fines are effective against firms doing substantial business in the US.
The waivers’ distribution or supply was an admission by the administration of Trump that is not practical to ask these countries to go without Iranian oil since it could not be replaced by other countries.
This is not just a matter of Iran or petroleum. The economic relationship of Iran with Europe become warmer in the year 2018 and increased it by 7.5%.
After this, Trump asked Saudi Arabia to flood the market with the aim to increase its petroleum production so that the United States could force other countries to reduce Iran oil imports without harming the economy of other countries.
Later on, the Saudis have signaled that they will cut back the production and urge some partners to do the same as well. Now, Saudi Arabia cuts back, prices will rise again. So, nothing can stop Iran to get benefits from the rise of the price of petroleum, since it still does sell oil to the world at the market value.
The squeeze play against Iran is failing at the beginning. This failing owns to the inability of the United States to bully India, China and other countries into cutting off Iran. Since Iran is still exporting oil in large quantities; Saudi over-production hurts Saudi Arabia as much as it hurts Iran because it reduces income.
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